Азербайджан может втянуться в развязанную США торговую войну

21 Июня 2018 11:44
Азербайджан может втянуться в развязанную США торговую войну

Строгая сертификация товаров из группы риска - возможного реэкспорта через Азербайджан будет проводиться в среднесрочной перспективе, считает российский эксперт.

БАКУ, 21 июн — Sputnik, Александра Зуева. Судя по тому накалу, который уже имеется по линиям Китай-США и Россия-США, страны ЕАЭС и СНГ, такие как Азербайджан, могут оказаться перед фактом необходимости выбирать – на чьей стороне они находятся, сказал Sputnik Азербайджан политолог, научный сотрудник Института экономики РАН Александр Караваев.

Китай на днях заявил о вводе ввозной пошлины в 25% на 659 наименований товаров, импортируемых из США, в ответ на аналогичные действия с американской стороны.

По словам Караваева, ситуация с торговыми войнами в какой-то степени напоминает третью мировую войну. В частности, для постсоветской России торговая война, в которую она втягивается последние десять лет, явление вообще новое.

Особенности глобальной торговой войны в том, что у нее есть разные локальные театры боевых действий, в которых наряду с прочим возникают в том числе и военные конфликты. Или же – отдельные региональные темы, привязанные к внешней политике и к геополитическим моментам трений между глобальными лидерами, сказал эксперт.

Собеседник Sputnik считает, что такой масштабной конфронтации, какая возникла сейчас между США и Китаем, в XXI веке пока еще не было. Были очень крупные торговые войны в XX веке между ведущими капиталистическими странами. Но то, что происходит между Вашингтоном и Пекином, это первое явление последних десятилетий.

"Если говорить о том, как это отразится на постсоветском пространстве, и на Азербайджане в частности, то тут надо отметить, что Россия в данный момент и, видимо, на долгосрочную перспективу, втягивается в войну на стороне Китая и Европы", — сказал политолог.

По мнению Караваева, особенность положения России на этом театре "боевых действий" заключается в том, что, выступая на стороне Китая и Европейского союза, она уже имеет линию конфликта с Соединенными Штатами по ситуации с Украиной.

В принципе, отметил он, начиная с 2014 года сворачивание в связи с санкциями торговых отношений с США уже привело к определенным последствиям. Поэтому, присоединившись сейчас к конфликту между США и Китаем, Россия фактически ничего особенно для себя не меняет. Никакого особого негативного влияния не произойдет.

Вслед за Китаем и Евросоюзом, РФ повысит тарифы на американский импорт, ответив на введенные США в марте защитные меры в отношении поставок стали и алюминия. В принципе, особого разнообразия в торговле РФ — США не осталось. Под ответные меры точно попадет строительная техника Caterpillar. С другой стороны, та же техника с китайского завода концерна обойдет санкции, сказал собеседник Sputnik.

Так что, по мнению эксперта, влияние на постсоветское пространство и в частности на Азербайджан пока косвенное.

Караваев считает, что судя по тому накалу, который уже имеется по нескольким линиям – Китай-США, Россия-США, страны ЕАЭС и страны СНГ, такие как Азербайджан, могут оказаться перед фактом необходимости выбирать – на чьей стороне они находятся.

То есть, отметил он, уже сейчас можно прогнозировать нарастание глобальной торговой войны, варианта "третьей мировой". Москва в среднесрочной перспективе будет ужесточать контроль за всеми поставками подсанкционных товаров на рынок ЕАЭС.

Форма выбора будет заключаться не в том, что Азербайджан должен будет присоединиться к каким-то санкциям, а в том, что фактически зоны свободной торговли вокруг России будут оформлены в среднесрочной перспективе таким образом, чтобы не допустить туда товары, которые оказываются под запретом в связи с торговой войной с США, подчеркнул эксперт.

По словам собеседника Sputnik, Азербайджан пока в этом плане находится несколько в стороне, являясь как бы наблюдателем. Ему немного проще, но строгая сертификация товаров из группы риска — возможного реэкспорта через Азербайджан будет проводиться в среднесрочной перспективе.

"Мне было бы интересно посмотреть, как сложатся торгово-экономические отношения между Казахстаном и США. В период январского визита Нурсултана Назарбаева в Вашингтон были подписаны многомиллиардные соглашения. И реализация этих контрактов напрямую зависит от этой международной санкционной войны", — сказал политолог.

Пока же, отметил эксперт, даже в рамках ЕАЭС не было жесткого обсуждения того, как ведут себя партнеры России по этой структуре в плане торговых войн. Хотя периодически эти темы возникали, в частности с Минском, но они скорее касались отдельных групп товаров.

"В целом же, это все не приобретало характера запрета в рамках ЕАЭС. В работе Евразийской комиссии не прослеживается разработка каких-то запретов именно для ЕАЭС. Но мне кажется, в перспективе ближайших трех-пяти лет, учитывая то, что темпы торговых войн идут по нарастающей, возможно, что это произойдет", — заключил Караваев.



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